Jethur – OIA Investment Risk Management

💰

OIA Investment Risk Register

#	Reference No.	Investment Name	Risk Title	Risk Type	Phase	Risk Rating	Financial Exposure	Status
1	OIA-2026-0011	Duqm Refinery Expansion	Crude Price Volatility Impact on Returns	Market Risk	Execution	High	OMR 1.2B	Open
2	OIA-2026-0010	Manah Solar Plants (I & II)	Grid Integration Delay — 500 MW	Regulatory Risk	Pre-Investment	Medium	OMR 280M	Submitted
3	OIA-2026-0009	Asyad Container Terminal — Duqm	Liquidity Risk — Pre-IPO Phase	Liquidity Risk	Monitoring	High	OMR 210M	Open
4	OIA-2026-0008	OQ Exploration & Production	Counterparty Credit Default — Block 60	Credit Risk	Execution	Critical	OMR 540M	Open
5	OIA-2026-0007	Hafeet Rail Project	Geopolitical Disruption — Cross-Border Rail	Geopolitical Risk	Pre-Investment	Medium	OMR 95M	Approved
6	OIA-2026-0006	Sohar PolySilicon Plant	ROI Shortfall — ICT Manufacturing	Strategic Risk	Monitoring	Medium	OMR 75M	Open
7	OIA-2026-0005	Jumeirah Muscat Bay Resort	Operational Risk — Tourism Asset	Operational Risk	Execution	Medium	OMR 55M	Approved
8	OIA-2026-0004	Future Fund Oman (FFO) — Portfolio	Market Volatility — Startup Valuation Risk	Market Risk	Exit	High	OMR 160M	Open

Per Page Showing 1 to 8 of 8 items

⊞ Overview

🔍 RCA

🔗 Risk Mapping

📊 Risk Analysis

🎯 Scenario Analysis

🛡️ Control Analysis

✅ Risk Response

📉 Residual RA

⚡ Investment Decision

📡 KRI

🔒 Risk Closure

✓

Draft

✓

Level 1 Review

⋯

Committee Review

✓

Final Approval

💰 Investment Context

Investment Name

Duqm Refinery Expansion — Phase 2

Investment Type

Energy — Downstream Refining

Investment Amount

OMR 1,200,000,000 (~USD 3.1B)

Expected ROI

12.8% per annum (base case)

Investment Duration

8 Years (2023–2031)

Investment Phase

Execution

Portfolio

National Development Fund (NDF)

Business Owner

NDF — Energy Sector Portfolio

⚠️ Risk Identification

Reference Number

IRV-2026-0011

Risk Title

Crude Price Volatility Impact on Returns

Consequence

The risk that sustained decline in global crude oil prices below the USD 70/bbl breakeven threshold significantly compresses refinery margins, reducing projected returns and impairing the OMR 1.2B investment in the Duqm Refinery Phase 2 expansion. Read More

Investment Risk Type

Market Risk

Risk Source

Market Conditions

Risk Driver

Global crude price decline + OPEC+ production changes

Affected Assumption

Brent crude avg. USD 79/bbl (2025 planning rate)

Financial Exposure

OMR 380,000,000

Impact on Return

−4.8% ROI reduction per USD 10/bbl drop

Risk Date

2026-03-01 9:00 AM

Risk Responsible

AM

Abdulsalam Al Murshidi

Review Frequency

Monthly

Next Review Date

2026-06-01

W1

Why 1 – Why is there a Crude Price Volatility Risk?

The Duqm Refinery Phase 2 financial model was built on a Brent crude planning assumption of USD 79/bbl, aligned with 2024 OIA planning rates. Current forward curves project USD 68–72/bbl for 2026–2027, creating a structural gap vs the breakeven rate.

W2

Why 2 – Why is the planning rate diverging from market reality?

OPEC+ revised its production policy in Q4 2025, increasing supply by 1.8 mb/d, while global demand growth projections were revised down by the IEA. Neither trigger is captured in the current Investment Governance Framework as a mandatory assumption refresh event.

W3

Why 3 – Why does the Governance Framework not capture OPEC+ changes?

The OIA Investment Governance Framework was authored for long-horizon infrastructure projects. It does not classify commodity price regime changes (e.g. OPEC+ supply shifts of >1 mb/d) as mandatory assumption refresh triggers for energy investments.

RC

Root Cause

Absence of a dynamic investment monitoring and assumption re-validation policy creates structural blind spots for long-horizon infrastructure investments exposed to macroeconomic volatility.

▼ Investment Objectives 3

#	Objective	Alignment	Impact
1	Achieve 14.5% annual ROI by 2028	Adversely Impacted	−6.2% projected ROI gap
2	Full occupancy by Project Year 3	Adversely Impacted	Occupancy forecast reduced to 62%
3	NPV positive within 5 years	At Risk	NPV breakeven extended by 18 months

▶ Financial Assumptions 2

#	Assumption	Assumed	Revised	Variance
1	Occupancy Rate Year 3	90%	62%	−28%
2	Avg. Lease Rate (SAR/sqm)	OMR 1,800	OMR 1,340	−25.6%

▶ Portfolio Exposure 1

#	Portfolio	Contribution	Exposure	Concentration
1	Vision 2030 Infrastructure Fund	32% of fund	OMR 380M	High Concentration

▶ Risk Appetite Thresholds Exceeded

Appetite Level

OMR 150M max per investment

Current Exposure

OMR 380M (153% of appetite)

Appetite Status

Breached – Escalate to IC

▶ Strategic Objectives 2

▶ Controls 4

📊 Inherent Risk Analysis – 5×5 Matrix

Impact ↓
Likelihood →

Rare(1)

Unlikely(2)

Possible(3)

Likely(4)

A.Certain(5)

Catastrophic(5)

5

10

15

20

25

Major(4)

4

8

12

16 ★

20

Moderate(3)

3

6

9

12

15

Minor(2)

2

4

6

8

10

Negligible(1)

1

2

3

4

5

★ Current: Likelihood – Likely (4) × Impact – Major (4) = Score 16 (High)

💰 Financial Impact Analysis

Financial Impact Value

OMR 380,000,000

ROI Impact

−6.2% (14.5% → 8.3%)

NPV Impact

OMR −48,000,000

Payback Period Impact

+18 months extension

Expected Loss (EL)

OMR 92,000,000

Inherent Investment Risk Rating

High – Above Appetite

✅ Best Case

Occupancy92%

Expected Return16.8%

Potential LossOMR 0

NPV+OMR 180M

Risk RatingLow

DecisionProceed

📊 Base Case

Occupancy75%

Expected Return11.2%

Potential LossOMR 85M

NPV+OMR 42M

Risk RatingMedium

DecisionProceed with Mitigation

⚠️ Worst Case

Occupancy45%

Expected Return4.1%

Potential LossOMR 380M

NPV−OMR 52M

Risk RatingHigh

DecisionHold

🌪 Stress Scenario

Occupancy20%

Expected Return−2.3%

Potential LossOMR 520M

NPV−OMR 190M

Risk RatingCritical

DecisionReject/Exit

🛡️ Control Analysis

#	Control Name	Type	Responsible	Effectiveness	Coverage	Status
1	Market Demand Quarterly Review	Detective	MA Marwa Ahmed	Partial	70%	Active
2	Lease Rate Benchmarking	Preventive	AH Ahmed Hassan	Effective	85%	Active
3	Demand-linked Milestone Gates	Preventive	SA Super Admin	Partial	60%	Under Review
4	Assumption Re-Validation Process	Corrective	KM Khalid M.	Ineffective	30%	Needs Improvement

🎯 Risk Response Strategy

ℹ️ Mitigate – Risk event is reduced in likelihood or impact through specific investment control and mitigation actions.

🛡️ Investment Mitigation Types

📊 Diversification📑 Contractual Protection🔍 Additional Due Diligence🏗️ Investment Restructuring

Risk Mitigation & Action Plans

#	Title	Type	Severity	Responsible	Target	Progress	Status
1	Engage 3 anchor tenants	Contractual	High	AH Ahmed H.	2026-06-30	35%	In Progress
2	Independent demand study Q2 2026	Due Diligence	High	KM Khalid M.	2026-05-15	80%	In Progress
3	Restructure Phase 3 into sub-tranches	Restructuring	Medium	MA Marwa A.	2026-08-01	10%	New

📉 Residual Risk Analysis

Residual Likelihood

Possible (3)

Residual Impact

Moderate (3)

Residual Score

9 – Medium

Risk Reduction

43.75% reduction

💰 Residual Investment Metrics

Residual Financial Exposure

OMR 145,000,000

Residual ROI Impact

−2.8% (→ 11.7%)

Residual Expected Loss

OMR 36,250,000

Residual vs Appetite

Within Tolerance

Residual Decision Status

Proceed with Monitoring

📊 Inherent vs. Residual Comparison

Metric	Inherent	Residual	Change
Risk Score	16 – High	9 – Medium	−7 pts
Financial Exposure	OMR 380M	OMR 145M	−OMR 235M
ROI Impact	−6.2%	−2.8%	+3.4%
Expected Loss	OMR 95M	OMR 36M	−OMR 59M

⚡ Investment Decision Layer

✅

Proceed

Risk within appetite

⚙️

Proceed with Mitigation

After completing action plans

⏸️

Hold

Pause pending reassessment

❌

Reject

Risk unacceptable

🏛️

Escalate to IC

Committee review required

📋 Decision Basis Summary

Factor	Value	Threshold	Status	Weight
Inherent Risk Score	16 – High	≤12	Exceeds Threshold	30%
Residual Risk Score	9 – Medium	≤10	Within Threshold	25%
Financial Exposure	OMR 380M	OMR 150M	Exceeds Appetite	25%
Base Case ROI	11.2%	≥12%	Below Target	10%
Control Effectiveness	42% avg.	≥70%	Insufficient	10%

💡 System Recommendation

Based on combined risk score, financial exposure, scenario analysis, and control effectiveness, the system recommends "Proceed with Mitigation". Residual risk (9 – Medium) is within acceptable tolerance once the three active mitigation plans are completed. Financial exposure must be monitored monthly and escalated to the Investment Committee if the demand study confirms worst-case projections.

📡 Investment KRIs

#	KRI Name	Current Value	Target	Threshold	Status	Last Updated
1	ROI Variance	−6.2%	0%	±2%	Breached	2026-05-01
2	Budget Variance	+8.4%	0%	±5%	Warning	2026-05-01
3	Market Price Movement	−18%	≥0%	−10%	Breached	2026-05-01
4	Liquidity Ratio	1.8x	≥1.5x	1.2x	Normal	2026-05-01
5	Occupancy Rate	48%	≥90%	70%	Breached	2026-05-01
6	Regulatory Change Indicator	2 changes	0	1	Warning	2026-04-28
7	Exit Trigger Indicator	Not triggered	Not triggered	Any trigger	Normal	2026-05-01

🔒 Risk Closure

⚠️ This risk cannot be closed yet. 3 KRI breaches are active and 2 mitigation action plans are still in progress.

Closure Status

Not Eligible

Pending Actions

2 open action plans

KRI Breaches

3 breached KRIs

Estimated Closure

Q3 2026

📊

OIA Investment Risk Dashboard

Total Investment Exposure

OMR 2.41B (~USD 6.3B)

▲ +12.4% from last quarter

High Risk Investments

4

▲ 2 new this quarter

Risks Above Appetite

3

▲ Escalation required

Pending IC Decisions

2

Awaiting committee

Avg. Residual Risk Score

11.2

▼ −1.8 from last quarter

KRI Breaches

7

▲ 3 new this week

Open Mitigation Actions

14

42% avg. completion

Investments Monitored

8

▼ 1 closed this quarter

Portfolio Concentration by Exposure

OQ Exploration & Production

OMR 540M

Duqm Refinery Expansion

OMR 380M

Asyad Container Terminal

OMR 210M

Future Fund Oman (FFO)

OMR 160M

Hafeet Rail

OMR 120M

Others

OMR 68M

Residual Risk Heatmap

4

1

2

1

Numbers = active investments in quadrant

Scenario Comparison – ROI by Investment

Investment	Best ROI	Base ROI	Worst ROI	Stress ROI	Risk Level
Duqm Refinery Expansion	16.8%	11.2%	4.1%	−2.3%	High
OQ Exploration & Production	18.5%	13.4%	2.8%	−4.1%	Critical
Asyad Container Terminal	14.2%	10.8%	6.2%	1.5%	High
Future Fund Oman (FFO)	22.1%	18.2%	8.5%	3.2%	High
Manah Solar Plants (I & II)	14.5%	12.1%	9.8%	6.1%	Medium

Pending IC Decisions

OQ Exploration & Production

Block 60 Credit Default Risk

CriticalDue: 2026-05-10

Duqm Refinery Expansion

Crude Price Volatility Risk

HighDue: 2026-05-15

🏗️

OIA Portfolio Risk Drilldown

OIA Enterprise Risk ›Investment Portfolio ›Asset Class › Asset › Factor

Private Equity

OMR 540M

3 risks · 2 critical

82% of appetite

Real Estate

OMR 380M

2 risks · 1 high

Appetite breached (253%)

Infrastructure

OMR 210M

2 risks · 1 medium

60% of appetite

Strategic

OMR 95M

1 risk · 0 high

35% of appetite

Risk Aggregation — Full Portfolio

Investment	Asset Class	Inherent	Residual	Exposure	vs Appetite	Op. Risk Links
Duqm Refinery Expansion	Real Estate	16 High	9 Med	OMR 380M	Breached	2 Linked
OQ Exploration & Production	Private Equity	20 Critical	12 High	OMR 540M	Breached	3 Linked
Manah Solar Plants	Infrastructure	15 High	8 Med	OMR 210M	Warning	1 Linked
Future Fund Oman	Private Equity	16 High	10 Med	OMR 160M	Warning	0
Hafeet Rail Project	Strategic	9 Med	5 Low	OMR 95M	Within	0

Enterprise Aggregated Score: 18.4 (High) — 3 assets above appetite · OMR 2.41B total · 6 operational risk linkages

Duqm Refinery — Risk Factor Level Drilldown

Risk Factor	Type	Contribution Score	Financial Impact	Correlated Risks
Crude price below breakeven	Market	8.5/10	OMR 252M	Asyad Container Terminal
Refinery margin compression	Market	6.0/10	OMR 86M	OQ Gas Processing
OMR debt service pressure	Pre-IPO Liquidity Risk	3.5/10	OMR 42M	—

⚖️

Risk Appetite, Limits & Threshold Configuration

Global Appetite

Asset Class Limits

Scoring Config

Overrides

Enterprise Appetite Statement

"OIA maintains a moderate appetite for investment risk, consistent with its mandate under the Oman Vision 2040 framework. The authority will not accept risks where expected loss exceeds OMR 100M per investment or where the aggregated portfolio risk score exceeds 15. All risks above appetite require Investment Committee approval and Board notification before any capital commitment."

Max exposure per investment

Max portfolio risk score

Max concentration per asset class

Min ROI hurdle rate

Current Appetite Status

Max exposure per investment

OMR 150M limit2 breached

OQ E&P: OMR 540M · Duqm Refinery: OMR 380M

Real Estate concentration

30% limit32% warning

Portfolio risk score

15 limit18.4 breached

Score Range	Rating	Action Required
1–4	Low
5–9	Medium
10–15	High
16–20	High
21–25	Critical

	PE	Real Estate	Infra	Strategic
PE	1.0	0.62	0.38	0.21
Real Estate	0.62	1.0	0.55	0.31
Infra	0.38	0.55	1.0	0.18
Strategic	0.21	0.31	0.18	1.0

#	Investment	Override Type	Requested By	Approved By	Reason	Expiry	Status
1	OQ E&P — Energy	Exposure +OMR 390M	MA Marwa Ahmed	IC IC	Strategic priority — Board directive	2026-12-31	Active
2	Duqm Refinery	Score threshold +1	AH Ahmed H.	CRO CRO	Pending mitigation completion	2026-09-30	Expiring

🔄

Workflow, Approvals & Escalation

Active Workflow Items

Risk	Stage	Assigned To	Due	SLA
Duqm Refinery – Crude Price Risk	IC Review	IC Inv. Committee	2026-05-15	Overdue 2d
OQ E&P – Credit Default	L2 Approval	CRO CRO Office	2026-05-20	Due today
Asyad Terminal – Liquidity Risk	Mitigation Tracking	AH Ahmed Hassan	2026-06-01	12d left
FFO – Startup Valuation Risk	Risk Closure	MA Marwa Ahmed	2026-06-15	25d left

Workflow Configuration

1

Identified

2

L1 Review

3

CRO Approval

4

IC Review*

5

Board Notify*

6

Monitoring

* Steps 4 and 5 triggered automatically when risk score ≥ 16 or exposure exceeds appetite

Auto-escalation trigger (score)

Auto-escalation trigger (exposure)

SLA — L1 Review

SLA — IC Review

📋

Board & Committee Reporting

OIA Investment Risk Management Report

Management Pack · Q2 2026 · Generated: 24 May 2026

Prepared by OIA Risk Management Division

Approved by: CRO

Enterprise Risk Score

18.4

▲ from 16.2 last quarter

Total Exposure

OMR 2.41B (~USD 6.3B)

▲ +12.4% QoQ

Appetite Breaches

3

2 require IC action

Mitigation Progress

42%

14 actions in progress

Top Risks — Board Attention

Investment	Risk	Score	Exposure	Recommendation
OQ E&P — Energy	Block 60 Credit Default	Critical 20	OMR 540M	IC decision required
Duqm Refinery	Crude Price Volatility	High 16	OMR 380M	Proceed with mitigation
Asyad Terminal	Liquidity	High 15	OMR 210M	Monitor monthly

Reporting Schedule

Report	Frequency	Recipients	Next Due
Management Pack	Monthly	CRO, CFO, CEO	2026-06-01
Board Pack	Quarterly	Board of Directors	2026-07-01
A&RC Report	Quarterly	Audit & Risk Cmt.	2026-07-15
KRI Flash Report	Weekly	Risk Team, CRO	2026-05-29

Management Actions

Immediate — IC Decision Required

OQ E&P Block 60 (Score 20) — OMR 540M exceeds appetite 440%. IC must decide: proceed with hedging strategy, restructure offtake terms, or execute partial divestment via planned OQEP IPO mechanism.

This Month — Mitigation Acceleration

Duqm Refinery crude price hedging programme at 35% completion. OIA Finance Division must execute forward contracts covering 60% of 2026-2027 output volume by Q3 2026.

This Quarter — Governance Update

OIA Investment Governance Framework does not classify OPEC+ supply shifts as mandatory assumption refresh triggers. Policy amendment required before Q4 2026 Board review cycle.

Portfolio Heatmap

4

1

2

1

🔌

System Integrations & Data Architecture

Financial System (SAP — OIA ERP)

Live — syncing

● Last sync: 2 min ago

Market Data (Bloomberg)

Live — streaming

● Real-time feed active

Credit Bureau API

Partial — daily batch

● Last run: 06:00 AM

Regulatory Feed (SAMA)

Configured

○ Pending activation

Integration Registry

System	Type	Data Feed	Frequency	Status
SAP Finance	ERP	Valuations, P&L	Real-time	● Live
Bloomberg	Market Data	Prices, rates, indices	Real-time	● Live
Credit Bureau API	External	Credit ratings	Daily	● Partial
SharePoint / DMS	Documents	Investment docs	On change	● Live
CBO / OIFC Regulatory	Regulatory	Policy alerts	Daily	○ Configured
Email / Notifications	Alerting	KRI breaches, approvals	Real-time	● Live
SSO / Active Directory	Identity	User auth, roles	Real-time	● Live

API Configuration

Base API URL

Authentication

Webhook — KRI alerts

Data format

Data Architecture — Live Feed Flow

Layer 1 — External Sources

SAP FinanceBloombergCredit BureauSAMA Feed

↓

Layer 2 — Integration Engine

API connectors · Data validation · Transformation · Error handling · Retry logic

↓

Layer 3 — Risk Data Store

OIA investment records · KRI time-series · NDF/FGF/FFO portfolio data · Version history · Audit logs

↓

Layer 4 — Automation Engine

KRI breach detection · Auto-scoring · Workflow triggers · Alert dispatch · Report generation

↓

Layer 5 — Jethur UI + Reports

Live dashboards · OIA Board reports · KRI monitoring · NDF/FGF/FFO drilldown · Mobile access

🔍

Audit Trail, Version Control & Access Management

Audit Log

Version History

User Access

Timestamp	User	Action	Object	Before	After	IP
2026-05-22 09:14:32	MA Marwa Ahmed	Score Updated	Duqm Refinery Expansion / OIA-2026-0011	16 High	9 Medium	10.0.1.42
2026-05-22 08:55:10	IC IC Member	Override Approved	OQ E&P / Appetite Override	OMR 150M	OMR 600M	10.0.2.15
2026-05-21 17:30:05	AH Ahmed Hassan	Mitigation Added	Duqm — Hedging Action Plan #3	—	Restructure sub-tranches	10.0.1.88
2026-05-21 14:12:44	MA Marwa Ahmed	KRI Breached	Duqm / Crude Price KRI	−4.1%	−6.2% Breached	System auto
2026-05-19 09:45:18	KM Khalid M.	Config Changed	Energy Sector / Max Exposure	OMR 200M	OMR 150M	10.0.1.55

Version	Date	Changed By	Changes	Status
v4 (current)	2026-05-22	MA Marwa Ahmed	Residual updated · Hedging plan added · Score 16→9	Active
v3	2026-04-15	CRO CRO	CRO approved · KRI thresholds updated	Superseded
v2	2026-03-20	AH Ahmed Hassan	RCA completed · Risk mapping added	Superseded
v1	2026-03-01	MA Marwa Ahmed	Initial risk created · Draft submitted	Draft

Asset Class	Max Exposure	Max Score	Max Concentration	Min ROI	Scoring Matrix	Status
Private Equity						Breached
Real Estate						Breached
Infrastructure						Warning
Strategic						Within

User	Role	Entity Access	Asset Class	Last Login	Status
MA Marwa Ahmed	Risk Manager	All entities	All	2026-05-22	Active
AH Ahmed Hassan	Risk Analyst	Duqm, Sohar Port	Real Estate	2026-05-21	Active
IC IC Member	Committee Member	All entities	All	2026-05-20	Active
KM Khalid M.	Auditor	Read-only all	All (read)	2026-05-18	Active
BD Board Director	Board Viewer	Dashboard only	All (view)	2026-05-01	Active